A quick note from me (Josh):
Welcome to The George Briefing. Each week, my co-founder Lu and I use our tech-focused lens to scan the UK energy market. Our goal is to cut through the noise and deliver the key developments that will impact your business's bottom line, all explained in simple, actionable terms.
This weeks developments are:
Ending 'Bill Shock': The New Rule That Kills Inaccurate Estimates
Stuck in the Grid Queue? Ofgem is Building a Fast-Track Lane
The UK's £100bn Energy Upgrade: And Why It's Landing on Your Bill
This Week's B2B Market Pulse
Four More "Hidden Gem" Stories You Might Have Missed
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Ofgem
Image source: Ideogram / Meet George
The Spark: A crucial but under-the-radar regulatory change just came into force, designed to make your estimated business electricity bills more accurate and predictable.
The details:
Ofgem has approved a modification to the energy market rules, known as P483, which officially took effect in June 2024.
The change targets how energy suppliers estimate electricity consumption for non-domestic sites with half-hourly meters when they don't have an actual meter reading.
Previously, suppliers could use basic estimation methods that often led to significant differences between initial bills and the final, reconciled charges months later.
P483 mandates that suppliers must now use a more sophisticated and accurate methodology to estimate usage, reducing the likelihood of large, unexpected catch-up bills for businesses.
Why it matters: This isn't just technical energy nonsense; it's a direct solution to a major cash flow headache for many businesses. The industry calls it 'reconciliation,' but for a finance director, it's an unpredictable liability that can appear on an invoice 12 months after the fact, wrecking budgets. P483 forces suppliers to stop using lazy, inaccurate estimates and do a better job upfront. The real-world impact is more predictable energy costs, allowing for tighter financial planning and reducing the risk of a sudden, unexpected multi-thousand-pound bill landing on your desk because your supplier's initial guess was way off.
What you can do:
Review your electricity invoices from the last 12-18 months for any large 'reconciliation' charges or credits. If you see them, this new rule is designed to prevent a repeat.
Ask your energy supplier or broker a direct question: "How are you implementing the P483 rule change to improve the accuracy of my estimated bills going forward?"
Check that your half-hourly meter has a reliable data connection. The best way to avoid estimates entirely is to ensure your actual usage data is being sent and received correctly.
Ofgem
Image source: Ideogram / Meet George
The Spark: Ofgem is finally overhauling the painfully slow and costly process of getting a new business site or energy project connected to the local electricity grid.
The details:
Regulator Ofgem is legally modifying the license conditions for the Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) who run the UK's regional electricity networks.
The changes are designed to reform the grid connections process, which has become a major bottleneck, delaying new business developments, EV charging hubs, and renewable energy projects.
This reform moves away from a rigid 'first-come, first-served' queue system for connections.
The new approach aims to prioritise projects that are viable and ready to proceed, while removing speculative or stalled 'zombie projects' that block grid capacity for others.
Why it matters: What does 'TMO4+ connections reform' actually mean for your business? It's regulator-speak for trying to fix one of the biggest headaches in UK infrastructure: the grid connection queue. For years, businesses looking to build a new factory, install large-scale solar, or set up an EV charging depot have been quoted multi-year waits and eye-watering costs, often because speculative projects are squatting on grid capacity. By changing the rules to prioritise 'shovel-ready' projects, Ofgem is attempting to clear this logjam. The real-world impact is that the risk, cost, and timeline of getting a new or upgraded connection should become more predictable, removing a major barrier to business investment and expansion.
What you can do:
If you have a grid connection application in the queue, contact your Distribution Network Operator (DNO) now to ask how these reforms will affect your project's timeline and any required milestones.
Planning a new development or on-site generation project? Factor these reforms into your business case, as they could significantly accelerate connection dates and improve project viability.
When budgeting for a new connection, ask your DNO if the new rules change how network reinforcement costs (the expensive grid upgrades) are allocated to your specific project.
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Image source: Ideogram / Meet George
The Spark: The UK has quietly approved a colossal pipeline of new energy infrastructure projects, signalling a multi-billion-pound rewiring of the country that will reshape business energy costs for the next decade.
The details:
The government has given the green light to dozens of nationally significant energy projects, including major offshore wind farms like Hornsea Project Four and the Rampion 2 extension.
Alongside renewables, approvals have been granted for critical grid infrastructure such as the Viking CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) pipeline and the Scotland to England Green Link 2 interconnector.
The list also includes large-scale solar farms (e.g., Mallard Pass, Cottam Solar Project) and key transitional technologies like the Drax bioenergy with carbon capture project (BECCS).
These decisions fall under the Planning Act 2008 and Electricity Act 1989, representing the formal, long-term planning process for upgrading the UK's entire energy system.
Why it matters: What's the real-world impact of this long list of government approvals? Don't just see this as a welcome wave of green projects. For your business, this is the construction plan for the future grid, and it comes with a hefty price tag. Every new wind farm, solar park, and interconnector needs to be built, managed, and connected to the network. The cost of this massive undertaking is socialised through the non-commodity charges on your energy bill – the parts that cover network maintenance and policy support. While the long-term goal is a more secure and potentially cheaper energy system, the medium-term reality for your P&L is that the cost of building it will almost certainly lead to sustained increases in these fixed charges, regardless of what the wholesale energy market does.
What you can do:
Scrutinise your non-commodity costs: Ask your supplier or broker for a full breakdown of the non-energy charges on your bill (e.g., TNUoS, DUoS, CfD). Understand what percentage of your total bill they represent today.
Budget for network cost inflation: When forecasting energy spend for the next 1-3 years, build in a specific contingency for rising network and policy charges, separate from your wholesale price assumptions.
Map your energy consumption: The most effective way to mitigate rising fixed charges is to reduce your overall consumption. Conduct a simple energy audit to identify 'peak time' usage that drives up network costs and find opportunities for efficiency savings.
LATEST MARKET NUMBERS
📊 B2B Market Pulse
Wholesale Electricity Price (weekly avg.): 8.19 p/kWh (Down -1.3%) - A slight dip in power prices offers some relief, though the market remains at a high level, providing a narrow window for procurement decisions.
Wholesale Gas Price: 2.85 p/kWh (Up +9.6%) - A significant jump in gas prices reverses last week's trend, directly pushing up the underlying cost of electricity generation.
UK Carbon Price (UKA): £52.22 per tonne (Up +2.8%) - Carbon costs continue to climb, adding further upward pressure on the non-commodity portion of business energy bills.
Wind + Solar Generation (Share of UK Mix): 25.9% (Down -6.5%) - Renewable output remained subdued, keeping the grid reliant on more expensive gas-fired power plants to meet demand.
The George Take: This week's numbers tell a more complicated story. On the surface, the small dip in electricity prices is welcome news. However, the fundamentals that drive that price - wholesale gas and carbon - both saw significant increases. So, what's going on? It shows that the link between gas and power prices isn't always one-to-one. Other factors, like steady imports or a slight dip in overall demand, can temporarily soften the blow of rising input costs. For businesses, the key takeaway is caution. The underlying cost drivers are flashing warning signs, and this week's slight price relief could be a temporary lull before the market corrects upwards. It's a perfect example of why watching the whole dashboard, not just one dial, is critical to making smart procurement decisions.
ALSO ON OUR RADAR
📰/📊 News & numbers also worth reading
Decoding Sizewell C: The New 'Nuclear Tax' Coming to Your Bill
One Major 'Hidden Cost' on Your Bill Is Now Fixed for the Year
A PLUG FOR GEORGE 🔌
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